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Post by Rodneck on Oct 21, 2017 7:26:05 GMT -5
Thought I'd kick this one in. Usually wait til after the World series but thought now would be right. A little baseball enthused after watching the Cubbies get embarrassed and eliminated at Wrigley! LOL! Pereza at winter ball in Venezuela. Did not realize the improvement down the stretch til I read it. I think this kid will be a hitter and can learn to walk more. TBC... m.reds.mlb.com/news/article/258925758/reds-jose-peraza-already-playing-winter-ball/ |
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Post by claycc on Oct 21, 2017 10:23:40 GMT -5
Yeah, anything close to .293/.361 at the top of the lineup would be pretty fucking sexy. I can't see them re-signing Cozart, but it wouldn't surprise me if started opening the wallet with him. Its not where/how I would start spending... but this is the Reds we're talking about! When it happens, its probably not going to make sense.
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Post by socalredsfan on Oct 25, 2017 0:01:12 GMT -5
Rod, I keep hearing that he improved down the stretch, but that improvement was so minor that it's hardly worth mentioning. So he lifted his OBP up to .333, while hitting .260. In that span he had, count em', FOUR extra base hits. And frankly, it was a nice August that upped his numbers. In September he was back under .300 OBP, and in July it was .300 on the nose. His .365 obp in August was his saving grace; that came in just 67 plate appearances. This team CANNOT afford to have Peraza and Hamilton in the lineup at the same time. At least Hamilton brings us unbelievable defense, and great base running though. This team will not make it to the next level with Peraza in the lineup everyday.
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Post by Rodneck on Oct 25, 2017 6:12:21 GMT -5
Rod, I keep hearing that he improved down the stretch, but that improvement was so minor that it's hardly worth mentioning. So he lifted his OBP up to .333, while hitting .260. In that span he had, count em', FOUR extra base hits. And frankly, it was a nice August that upped his numbers. In September he was back under .300 OBP, and in July it was .300 on the nose. His .365 obp in August was his saving grace; that came in just 67 plate appearances. This team CANNOT afford to have Peraza and Hamilton in the lineup at the same time. At least Hamilton brings us unbelievable defense, and great base running though. This team will not make it to the next level with Peraza in the lineup everyday. Billy has proven he will never hit as he has had ample time to do so. Peraza all I am saying is I am not giving up on. I was right about Suarez and I think I'll be right here too. We're losing in the meantime and with the glacial movement of the front office we have all the time in the world!  |
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Post by claycc on Oct 25, 2017 10:24:31 GMT -5
Billy has proven he will never hit as he has had ample time to do so. Peraza all I am saying is I am not giving up on. I was right about Suarez and I think I'll be right here too. We're losing in the meantime and with the glacial movement of the front office we have all the time in the world! I agree, Rod. And I think that Winker and Ervin both showing that they are ready to work through their learning curve at the big league level pushes the door open for changes to be made in the outfield. It would be easy to say that Schebler is the weak link in the outfield, but he brings a lot of power from the left side. Hamilton has probably peaked. Maybe no moves would have to be made if the backups are jettisoned, with Winker and Ervin filling that role. It may not be time to make the hard decisions on who to cut loose from the outfield equation yet. But its very close to that point. Of course, to be perfectly honest about the organization, both Winker and Ervin may open next season in Louisville. If that happens, I think its just another sign that the front office is spinning its wheels and we should not expect a damn thing from them for quite awhile. With the infield, something will give here. Not a whole lot, but some. Like I said, I can't see them opening the wallet for Cozart, especially if they make a play to keep Scooter around as well. I haven't really paid attention to Scooter's money situation, but after the season he just had, he must be due a nice raise. So, one will go in order to keep the other. The minors don't seem to be quite ready to inject new blood into the middle infield, so that makes Peraza even more important. |
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Post by Rodneck on Oct 25, 2017 10:37:42 GMT -5
Billy has proven he will never hit as he has had ample time to do so. Peraza all I am saying is I am not giving up on. I was right about Suarez and I think I'll be right here too. We're losing in the meantime and with the glacial movement of the front office we have all the time in the world! I agree, Rod. And I think that Winker and Ervin both showing that they are ready to work through their learning curve at the big league level pushes the door open for changes to be made in the outfield. It would be easy to say that Schebler is the weak link in the outfield, but he brings a lot of power from the left side. Hamilton has probably peaked. Maybe no moves would have to be made if the backups are jettisoned, with Winker and Ervin filling that role. It may not be time to make the hard decisions on who to cut loose from the outfield equation yet. But its very close to that point. Of course, to be perfectly honest about the organization, both Winker and Ervin may open next season in Louisville. If that happens, I think its just another sign that the front office is spinning its wheels and we should not expect a damn thing from them for quite awhile. With the infield, something will give here. Not a whole lot, but some. Like I said, I can't see them opening the wallet for Cozart, especially if they make a play to keep Scooter around as well. I haven't really paid attention to Scooter's money situation, but after the season he just had, he must be due a nice raise. So, one will go in order to keep the other. The minors don't seem to be quite ready to inject new blood into the middle infield, so that makes Peraza even more important. The problem with the outfield is everybody is left handed. Duvall has to stay for RH power reasons IMO. Not buying Ervin at all. he can start at Louisville and if he has a 1.000 OPS by June I'll believe! But Billy has to not be a starter. Winker and his OBP are real and that outweighs a player making all his contributions on peripheral talents no matter how bigtime those skills are. This is a hitting and OBP league and we don't have it. I can roll dice on Peraza or Billy but not both. And I'd rather plug in Peraza to the SS position and see what happens. So it comes down to Hamilton vs Winker which IMO is a no brainer. Winker starts. With the infield I think it's easy. Pay Scooter til Senzel is ready. Then Senzel goes to 2B. Suarez is the best 3B not named Arenado defensively and has a top 20 walk ability. My dream was to have both Hamilton and Peraza both steal 60 bags a year and be anchored at the top of the lineup. OBP by both is too pathetic. Hamilton is proving he can't hit and is also injury prone. I'm ready to move on. |
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Post by socalredsfan on Oct 25, 2017 11:50:47 GMT -5
Billy has proven he will never hit as he has had ample time to do so. Peraza all I am saying is I am not giving up on. I was right about Suarez and I think I'll be right here too. We're losing in the meantime and with the glacial movement of the front office we have all the time in the world! I agree, Rod. And I think that Winker and Ervin both showing that they are ready to work through their learning curve at the big league level pushes the door open for changes to be made in the outfield. It would be easy to say that Schebler is the weak link in the outfield, but he brings a lot of power from the left side. Hamilton has probably peaked. Maybe no moves would have to be made if the backups are jettisoned, with Winker and Ervin filling that role. It may not be time to make the hard decisions on who to cut loose from the outfield equation yet. But its very close to that point. Of course, to be perfectly honest about the organization, both Winker and Ervin may open next season in Louisville. If that happens, I think its just another sign that the front office is spinning its wheels and we should not expect a damn thing from them for quite awhile. With the infield, something will give here. Not a whole lot, but some. Like I said, I can't see them opening the wallet for Cozart, especially if they make a play to keep Scooter around as well. I haven't really paid attention to Scooter's money situation, but after the season he just had, he must be due a nice raise. So, one will go in order to keep the other. The minors don't seem to be quite ready to inject new blood into the middle infield, so that makes Peraza even more important. Rod, I'm not arguing with you on Hamilton. Completely agree. He has proven that he won't hit. And yes, you were right about Suarez. I'm not sure though, that I'd make any comparisons between Peraza and Suarez though. Suarez was known for his hitting, and he has always been a much stronger guy than Peraza. Suarez literally, along with Cozart, went to the school of hitting taught by Votto. Peraza though, while young, has a ton of AB's to reference, and his game is never changing. He's as light of a hitter as there is, and he has never had plate discipline. Peraza is among the softest hitters in the game when it comes to balls leaving his bat. Plus, he's just not that good defensively either. Getting back the Hamilton. Again, I concede he can't hit, and I'm all about trading him, but for now he's in the lineup, and he actually does something great, which is save runs with his glove, and change the game when he's on base. Peraza does neither of those things, even though he does have speed. Again, you can't have two of the worst hitters in the game, both in the lineup. |
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Post by socalredsfan on Oct 25, 2017 12:05:17 GMT -5
I agree, Rod. And I think that Winker and Ervin both showing that they are ready to work through their learning curve at the big league level pushes the door open for changes to be made in the outfield. It would be easy to say that Schebler is the weak link in the outfield, but he brings a lot of power from the left side. Hamilton has probably peaked. Maybe no moves would have to be made if the backups are jettisoned, with Winker and Ervin filling that role. It may not be time to make the hard decisions on who to cut loose from the outfield equation yet. But its very close to that point. Of course, to be perfectly honest about the organization, both Winker and Ervin may open next season in Louisville. If that happens, I think its just another sign that the front office is spinning its wheels and we should not expect a damn thing from them for quite awhile. With the infield, something will give here. Not a whole lot, but some. Like I said, I can't see them opening the wallet for Cozart, especially if they make a play to keep Scooter around as well. I haven't really paid attention to Scooter's money situation, but after the season he just had, he must be due a nice raise. So, one will go in order to keep the other. The minors don't seem to be quite ready to inject new blood into the middle infield, so that makes Peraza even more important. The problem with the outfield is everybody is left handed. Duvall has to stay for RH power reasons IMO. Not buying Ervin at all. he can start at Louisville and if he has a 1.000 OPS by June I'll believe! But Billy has to not be a starter. Winker and his OBP are real and that outweighs a player making all his contributions on peripheral talents no matter how bigtime those skills are. This is a hitting and OBP league and we don't have it. I can roll dice on Peraza or Billy but not both. And I'd rather plug in Peraza to the SS position and see what happens. So it comes down to Hamilton vs Winker which IMO is a no brainer. Winker starts. With the infield I think it's easy. Pay Scooter til Senzel is ready. Then Senzel goes to 2B. Suarez is the best 3B not named Arenado defensively and has a top 20 walk ability. My dream was to have both Hamilton and Peraza both steal 60 bags a year and be anchored at the top of the lineup. OBP by both is too pathetic. Hamilton is proving he can't hit and is also injury prone. I'm ready to move on. Clay, I'm not sure Ervin is ever going to be a starting outfielder. He's a decent defensive player with some pop, who will never hit for average. This comes from me, a guy who was probably more excited about his being drafted, as much as anyone, until Senzel. I think the Reds need to do their best to deal either Schebler or Duval. I'd say Duval because his body can't handle a full year of playing, and falls off tremendously in the 2nd half. Problem is, the power right-handed bat is needed. Schebler though, is a pure athlete, who looks like he will improve on what he has already done. Winker needs to play everyday and lead off. As for Scooter, I'd do my best to trade him this winter. Take advantage of selling him at the highest point possible. He's a subpar fielder who cannot hit lefties. If they do keep him though, he will not cost that much as he's under team control. outside of Rod's opinion on Peraza, I agree with his comments above. I would not forget about Herrera though. He has to stick with the club since he's out of options, and if healthy, I think he can easily hit and play 2nd base. I could see us having the problem of Herrera and his bat causing an issue as to what to do about Senzel. I would try and sign Cozart to a friendly deal of no more than $36 mil for 3 years. That would lock in one hell of an outstanding offense. I'd then look for a top of the rotation guy, and let's get this thing going in 2018, instead of waiting any longer. |
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Post by Rodneck on Oct 25, 2017 12:40:11 GMT -5
I agree, Rod. And I think that Winker and Ervin both showing that they are ready to work through their learning curve at the big league level pushes the door open for changes to be made in the outfield. It would be easy to say that Schebler is the weak link in the outfield, but he brings a lot of power from the left side. Hamilton has probably peaked. Maybe no moves would have to be made if the backups are jettisoned, with Winker and Ervin filling that role. It may not be time to make the hard decisions on who to cut loose from the outfield equation yet. But its very close to that point. Of course, to be perfectly honest about the organization, both Winker and Ervin may open next season in Louisville. If that happens, I think its just another sign that the front office is spinning its wheels and we should not expect a damn thing from them for quite awhile. With the infield, something will give here. Not a whole lot, but some. Like I said, I can't see them opening the wallet for Cozart, especially if they make a play to keep Scooter around as well. I haven't really paid attention to Scooter's money situation, but after the season he just had, he must be due a nice raise. So, one will go in order to keep the other. The minors don't seem to be quite ready to inject new blood into the middle infield, so that makes Peraza even more important. Rod, I'm not arguing with you on Hamilton. Completely agree. He has proven that he won't hit. And yes, you were right about Suarez. I'm not sure though, that I'd make any comparisons between Peraza and Suarez though. Suarez was known for his hitting, and he has always been a much stronger guy than Peraza. Suarez literally, along with Cozart, went to the school of hitting taught by Votto. Peraza though, while young, has a ton of AB's to reference, and his game is never changing. He's as light of a hitter as there is, and he has never had plate discipline. Peraza is among the softest hitters in the game when it comes to balls leaving his bat. Plus, he's just not that good defensively either. Getting back the Hamilton. Again, I concede he can't hit, and I'm all about trading him, but for now he's in the lineup, and he actually does something great, which is save runs with his glove, and change the game when he's on base. Peraza does neither of those things, even though he does have speed. Again, you can't have two of the worst hitters in the game, both in the lineup. Yeah we are not far off in our assessment, we just choose different .300 OBP players! Hamilton's upside is there for all to see. I am taking a big leap of faith in my assessment of Peraza. On cold dope he doesn't measure up and I get it. But I am not ready to close the book on him at this juncture. It's a hunch and nothing more. The rest we are pretty aligned on. Overall I am less concerned with this than finding a competent rotation. Where are you at with that aspect? |
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Post by Rodneck on Oct 25, 2017 12:45:36 GMT -5
Yeah we have a strange outfield. 3 of the 4 are left handed. Only 1 of the 4 have an OBP that might be worthy. But that's 1 of the 2 with no pop. And the best outfielder defensively and on the basepaths has no pop or no OBP. And our only RH'er lacks stamina. It's borderline Twilight Zone out there.
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Post by claycc on Oct 25, 2017 17:31:10 GMT -5
Clay, I'm not sure Ervin is ever going to be a starting outfielder. He's a decent defensive player with some pop, who will never hit for average. This comes from me, a guy who was probably more excited about his being drafted, as much as anyone, until Senzel. I think the Reds need to do their best to deal either Schebler or Duval. I'd say Duval because his body can't handle a full year of playing, and falls off tremendously in the 2nd half. Problem is, the power right-handed bat is needed. Schebler though, is a pure athlete, who looks like he will improve on what he has already done. Winker needs to play everyday and lead off. As for Scooter, I'd do my best to trade him this winter. Take advantage of selling him at the highest point possible. He's a subpar fielder who cannot hit lefties. If they do keep him though, he will not cost that much as he's under team control. outside of Rod's opinion on Peraza, I agree with his comments above. I would not forget about Herrera though. He has to stick with the club since he's out of options, and if healthy, I think he can easily hit and play 2nd base. I could see us having the problem of Herrera and his bat causing an issue as to what to do about Senzel. I would try and sign Cozart to a friendly deal of no more than $36 mil for 3 years. That would lock in one hell of an outstanding offense. I'd then look for a top of the rotation guy, and let's get this thing going in 2018, instead of waiting any longer. I don't expect Ervin to be a starter either. But I do expect him to be better off the bench and with spot starts than either Kivlehan or Alcantara any day of the week. If they stand pat with the starters and add Winker to the mix, as they should, then Ervin should be the last outfielder. A much better bench that way. Now, maybe Ervin would be better off playing every day at Louisville, and called up in case of injury, just to keep whatever piece of shit 5th outfielder from having too much playing time. But the reality right now is that he's the 5th outfielder no matter where he opens and spends most of his season. Plain and simple, Winker is a starter and Ervin is a better backup than anyone else we have. As for trades, I don't see that we're going to get much for anyone we deal away. Maybe A-AA fillers. We'll be trading for the purpose of opening up spots on the big league team. Other than Winker, who is really ready to move up and compete for a starting role? That's a tougher move in the outfield because you have two backups that should be shipped out with a bag of balls anyhow (and we already have replacements for them). Who is stepping up on the infield? They really aren't ready yet. I really can't see giving Cozart $12m/yr either. I mean, yeah, sure, he earned it this past season. But that's awfully friendly money for just one year of offensive production and a tendency to suffer a season ending injury every year. Its a very real possibility that the front office will not even consider offering him a deal. If they don't and he's gone... they'll be reluctant to part with anyone else to open up a spot. Scooter is an insurance policy right now, for whatever they do with Cozart. I think 2018 is primed as well. I expect a much better season from Bailey. We'll see how shaky Disco is when he comes back. A few of the young guys showed great promise. Pickup a stud starter... fine, someone needs to eat innings though. Or the bullpen will get worn out again, so getting some better arms in the bullpen may be necessary. It could happen in 2018, they'll need to make some bold moves this off season though. They better make a splash at the Winter meetings. If they don't, I won't expect too much from them. Start dreaming about 2019 instead. |
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Post by Rodneck on Oct 25, 2017 18:43:08 GMT -5
Clay, I'm not sure Ervin is ever going to be a starting outfielder. He's a decent defensive player with some pop, who will never hit for average. This comes from me, a guy who was probably more excited about his being drafted, as much as anyone, until Senzel. I think the Reds need to do their best to deal either Schebler or Duval. I'd say Duval because his body can't handle a full year of playing, and falls off tremendously in the 2nd half. Problem is, the power right-handed bat is needed. Schebler though, is a pure athlete, who looks like he will improve on what he has already done. Winker needs to play everyday and lead off. As for Scooter, I'd do my best to trade him this winter. Take advantage of selling him at the highest point possible. He's a subpar fielder who cannot hit lefties. If they do keep him though, he will not cost that much as he's under team control. outside of Rod's opinion on Peraza, I agree with his comments above. I would not forget about Herrera though. He has to stick with the club since he's out of options, and if healthy, I think he can easily hit and play 2nd base. I could see us having the problem of Herrera and his bat causing an issue as to what to do about Senzel. I would try and sign Cozart to a friendly deal of no more than $36 mil for 3 years. That would lock in one hell of an outstanding offense. I'd then look for a top of the rotation guy, and let's get this thing going in 2018, instead of waiting any longer. I don't expect Ervin to be a starter either. But I do expect him to be better off the bench and with spot starts than either Kivlehan or Alcantara any day of the week. If they stand pat with the starters and add Winker to the mix, as they should, then Ervin should be the last outfielder. A much better bench that way. Now, maybe Ervin would be better off playing every day at Louisville, and called up in case of injury, just to keep whatever piece of shit 5th outfielder from having too much playing time. But the reality right now is that he's the 5th outfielder no matter where he opens and spends most of his season. Plain and simple, Winker is a starter and Ervin is a better backup than anyone else we have. As for trades, I don't see that we're going to get much for anyone we deal away. Maybe A-AA fillers. We'll be trading for the purpose of opening up spots on the big league team. Other than Winker, who is really ready to move up and compete for a starting role? That's a tougher move in the outfield because you have two backups that should be shipped out with a bag of balls anyhow (and we already have replacements for them). Who is stepping up on the infield? They really aren't ready yet. I really can't see giving Cozart $12m/yr either. I mean, yeah, sure, he earned it this past season. But that's awfully friendly money for just one year of offensive production and a tendency to suffer a season ending injury every year. Its a very real possibility that the front office will not even consider offering him a deal. If they don't and he's gone... they'll be reluctant to part with anyone else to open up a spot. Scooter is an insurance policy right now, for whatever they do with Cozart. I think 2018 is primed as well. I expect a much better season from Bailey. We'll see how shaky Disco is when he comes back. A few of the young guys showed great promise. Pickup a stud starter... fine, someone needs to eat innings though. Or the bullpen will get worn out again, so getting some better arms in the bullpen may be necessary. It could happen in 2018, they'll need to make some bold moves this off season though. They better make a splash at the Winter meetings. If they don't, I won't expect too much from them. Start dreaming about 2019 instead. Clay you bring up a good point. I think we also need rotation insurance with so many young or injured starters. Bailey or Disco could get hurt again and the young 3 could go up in flames for a lengthy period that will simply be self destruction for them. Playing them through 30+ starts of 7.00-9.00 ERA's is not intelligent at all. Cueto taking his lumps with a sub 5.00 ERA sure but not that. I think we should get a decent innings eating starter. Not sure who but think it would be wise and not a Feldman either. Right now it's Bailey-Castillo-Romano-Mahle-Disco. Lot of potential volatility in there. If Finnegan can be out with a lat muscle all year he should go to the pen.(cue Davis!) |
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Post by brad on Oct 25, 2017 22:41:03 GMT -5
I think at this point I would consider shopping Duvall and Schebler, and moving the one you get the best return. Whichever one is moved, then the other takes a corner OF spot with Winker taking the other. As for Hamilton, I'd like to keep him on the team. I still think he can be a valuable asset as a late inning defensive replacement, or a late game pinch runner who can cause havoc on the base paths...there is value in that. The issue unfortunately is if Hamilton is the 4th OF, we don't have a guy on the roster who we can trust to put in CF everyday. Schebs and Winker could do it in a pinch or some spot starts, but I'd be really hesitant allowing either of them patrol CF on a consistent basis...maybe consider Peraza out there??? As for Ervin, I'd put him in AAA and let him so if his 2nd half was real or a fluke. Only way we'll know is if he plays everyday, and that isn't likely to happen in Cincy.
I'd also look to trade Gennett(expected to get $6.1M in arbitration). We'd be trading him at peak value...maybe we could get a Straily like return. I'd let Cozart walk. Another player to consider for 2B is Dilson Herrera. He is out of options and has to stick in MLB this year. He may be the guy for 2B if he can stay healthy...then have Senzel start the year in AAA at 2B for his inevitable call up. This way if Herrera flops, Senzel is right there. Alex Blandino is also an outside candidate for 2B.
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Post by redsfan4life on Oct 26, 2017 18:59:35 GMT -5
Outside of Votto there is no one on the team Id rather watch play than Billy. We all agree he can't hit a lick and never will.
But if we have 7 strong hitters having Billy in the lineup will not hurt you much. But we all agree you cant have Peraza and Billy.
Billy batting 9th with a strong top 7 hitters is ok. But Bily should not ever lead off again. No matter who is sitting out that day leave him 9th.
No reason to bat him 8th and have pitcher bunt him over when he gets on base. He don't need to be bunted over.
Like Rod said OF is kinda a strong spot but a mess all at same time. Duvall can't play everyday and be productive. Schebler is hot and cold but I like him and think he can get better. Winker IMO is the real deal. He would hit 20 hr bare minimum imo playing 130 games a season. Would put up 380 or better OBP.
and would get better every year. He is horrible in the field though. If they keep all 4 guys. I would sit Duvall at least once a week maybe even twice. I would sit Billy twice a week. I don't think Schebler would be any worse in CF than Choo was. I would consider carring 5 Ofers having Ervin platoon in CF with Billy. Billy was better as a LHB than a RHB.
I would look to deal Scooter I doubt he comes close to the numbers he put up this year. Back of his baseball card says no way he will. As Chris said he is a horrible 2B man.
They have a bunch of tough calls to make. But a few tweaks here and there. Sign a starter and add a couple bull pen pieces this team could contend for a wild card.
I guess we will have to wait and see if front office wants to compete now or later.
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Post by davis44 on Oct 28, 2017 12:38:16 GMT -5
Bringing Price and this coaching staff back is just pointless. At what point do u finally figured out that a new voice is needed?
If Boston, Detroit, and NY can make a change why the he'll can't this organization.
Nobody is saying they should hire a Girardi, but thwere are good, affordable candidates out there.
I hear names like Tim Naehering and Jerry Hairston Jr.
How many 90+ losing seasons is one manager allowed??? How many 9+ game losing streaks is one mgr allowed in a tenure??
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