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Post by Rodneck on Jan 14, 2017 10:18:28 GMT -5
This seems to be our biggest focus and rightly so as our biggest weakness. My point of departure is this. What is that? It is addition by subtraction. This is right now the corps of our bullpen heading into the season adding up their 2016 statistics(Iglesias, Lorenzen, Storen, Diaz, Wood, and Cingrani). I did take liberties and used Storen's 2015 line as really only his stint with Toronto looks like the outlier. If duplicable this puts us right in the mix for one of the best bullpens in baseball as the top 2 pens had ERA's of 3.35(LAD) and 3.37(WAS). But I know those numbers are short 1 guy and stats go up and down, not to mention health. I would not rest on my laurels but just for identification sake I wanted to point out exactly what we have in the pen right now and what they look like collectively. This is a decent start but far from a finish.
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Post by Rodneck on Jan 14, 2017 10:40:53 GMT -5
We need a little luck this year too. Every minor leaguer called up to the pen sucked. These 3 guys are all spring invites. All 3 are from an entirely different talent pool than dead weight we called up last season. Give em a look. www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=chacin001aleChacin is at AA and took a big step forward in performance. Always had K ability. www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=guillo001ismHe had a year off after surgery and looks to me like he needed it and most of his wildness was in between the ears. Dominated A+. www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=herget000jimThis guy is drafted as and is being groomed solely as a reliever. 2 last things about these guys. Bullpen arms more than anything are on the fast track. There is no innings building or developing other tools as with starters and position players. With all double digit K9's any or all of these guys could contribute at the MLB level in 2017.
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Post by Rodneck on Jan 20, 2017 10:06:51 GMT -5
OK with Brice almost assuredly going to the bullpen right now this is how it shakes out.
Iglesias
Lorenzen
Storen
Brice
Wood
Cingrani
Diaz
Yes I still would get another reliever. If you could possibly get both Travis Wood and yes injury and all I would take a flyer on Holland, I would have confidence in this bullpen. As is right now we are better off markedly going into this season.
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Post by Rodneck on Jan 20, 2017 10:21:25 GMT -5
2017 Rotation
Even with Straily there are a lot of question marks. Without it gets muddier.
Right now the top 3 are
Desclafani
Bailey
Finnegan
From there it gets dicey to say the least and you might say with Bailey's health questions even dicier. We only have 4 potential starters from the minor league crop IMO-Reed-Stephenson-Garrett-Adelman. Of those 4 I would not count on Stephenson at all. Despite his top pick status he has been mediocre everywhere posting a 4.41 ERA at AAA with a 1.36 WHIP and 7.92 K9. His struggles up here were almost a given. The same cannot be said for Reed and Adelman. While Reed did get torched up here he did struggle with some minor physical issues. Adelman was at least serviceable in his big league time posting a 4.00 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and 6.07 K9. So don't laugh at that prospect of him starting to begin the year. I think he deserves it. What both he and Reed did at AAA is noteworthy. Their talent level speaks through their numbers;
Reed-3.08 ERA--1.25 WHIP--20 BB-65 K--8.01 K9
Adelman-2.38 ERA--1.09 WHIP--10 BB-38 K--6.03 K9
Adelman also had a 2.64 ERA at AA in 2015. As Brad pointed out in another thread, protecting Garrett for a few weeks to get him to super 2 status is a good idea and that makes Adelman very useful. If he struggles we have Garrett and could use Adelman as a swing man or if Adelman doesn't there is no need to do anything. Garrett had a solid 1.75 ERA at AA with a 1.03 WHIP and 9.11 K9 but struggled at AAA with a 3.46 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, 7.18 K9.
With so many contrasts between major and minor league performances and health issues for Bailey and to a lesser extent Reed and Desclafani, and also stretchout issues I think it's imperative to get some veteran help if only to protect young arms from either innings, injury, or the psychological damage if they get destroyed. All real possibilities. Have barely looked at free agent starters but it's usually a mediocre pool at this point in the offseason. I would hope another brilliant trade is in the works.
Where you at with the rotation?
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Post by brad on Jan 20, 2017 13:26:13 GMT -5
Another name to throw into the bullpen mix is Zach Weiss. He had was very good in Dayton in 2014, and owned A+ and AA in the 2015. He missed all of 2016 due to an injury, but I think he would have contributed last year for the Reds if he wasn't hurt: www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=weiss-001zac
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Post by Rodneck on Jan 20, 2017 16:26:07 GMT -5
Another name to throw into the bullpen mix is Zach Weiss. He had was very good in Dayton in 2014, and owned A+ and AA in the 2015. He missed all of 2016 due to an injury, but I think he would have contributed last year for the Reds if he wasn't hurt: www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=weiss-001zacBrad as always your work fills in the big picture. Was wholly unaware of Weiss! That gives us a quartet of minor league power arms that could give the big league club a boost this season. Eventually we are going to get lucky where a mix of young talent that's here(Iglesias and Lorenzen) and coming up and the FA's acquired all coalesce together and give us a solid shut down pen. Looking at the landscape of bullpen importance assuming a large role in the majors I think it will be imperative to produce power arms specifically pen oriented coming up through the system at all times. Anyway you got any ideas of starters outside the organization to target?
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Post by brad on Jan 20, 2017 19:06:16 GMT -5
A few names still out there of varying degrees of talent: Nate Eovaldi Doug Fister Jason Hammel Edwin Jackson Mat Latos Colby Lewis Tim Lincecum Kris Medlen Jonathon Niese Jake Peavy Jered Weaver CJ Wilson
Then there are unknown guys like Strailey who will get cut during spring training as teams need to find roster spots for the guys they want on their team.
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Post by Rodneck on Jan 26, 2017 17:06:54 GMT -5
So we start the year with these 4-Desclafani, Bailey, Finnegan, and Feldman. With Reed, Garrett, Stephenson, and Adelman as depth.
I like having 4 penciled in. And don't laugh at it. I doubt we will ever see the historical 2012-13 rotation ever again. Remember in 2010 we only had 3 starters with an ERA under 4.00(Arroyo, Cueto, and Wood) and none of them were under 3.50. 2012 there were 4 but only Cueto had an ERA under 3.48 but that was his ace year of a 2.78 ERA. In 13 we actually had 6 starters under 4.00. We just need competent out of the rotation to be decent. But I will be holding my breath the first few weeks of April! LOL!
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Post by redsfan4life on Jan 26, 2017 18:04:05 GMT -5
I have picked up Feldman a few times 3-4 years ago when I was in a deep american league only fantasy league. He seems to run very hot or very cold. He would pitch 4 or 5 straight really good games of 6 plus inns and 2 runs or less type starts. Then get torched next 2 or 3 starts. Like 3 ip and 6er type starts. Looks like a guy that if he gets hit early better get pen up and running. looks like a Decent signing they are hoping he pitches well enough that a few teams will be interested at deadline an he can be flipped for another prospect. I am getting excited about upcoming season. Dick Williams should be a improvement over Jock itch. I think they are starting to embrace contact hitters and on base guys it seems. Heard a guy say the other day that the only thing that matters for a hitter is to simply not make outs keep the line moving. It dont matter if it is a HR single or a walk key is to just dont make outs. I wonder how much longer Votto will be productive? 3-5 years or longer? At least playing 1b should help his legs. After reading up the last couple years on analytics I believe Joey Votto is the best Reds player ever. I believe he has passed Morgan Bench Rose etc. all. Rod and Linz I may be headed down your way this Sun to a card show in sharonville.
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Post by Rodneck on Jan 27, 2017 10:43:53 GMT -5
Hey Red good to see ya. You can see that Feldman is a serviceable, not great, not disastrous pitcher, and last year til the Toronto debacle had a 2.90 ERA. Expect that to get a boost from the AL to NL move. I think he has plenty in the tank for our needs. If the kids beat him out and he is bumped to the pen that is fantastic news for us!
Williams has moved slowly but smartly. Winning and winning fans over will take time especially with the latter. With you admitting being excited about the upcoming season says a lot! I am too. I am counting wins this year!
Have a big slate this weekend between the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Saturday then grandpa duties on Sunday. But drop me a PM about the details for Sunday and perhaps we can hook up. If not we will for sure at games this season brother!
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Post by Rodneck on Jan 27, 2017 10:50:01 GMT -5
I have picked up Feldman a few times 3-4 years ago when I was in a deep american league only fantasy league. He seems to run very hot or very cold. He would pitch 4 or 5 straight really good games of 6 plus inns and 2 runs or less type starts. Then get torched next 2 or 3 starts. Like 3 ip and 6er type starts. Looks like a guy that if he gets hit early better get pen up and running. looks like a Decent signing they are hoping he pitches well enough that a few teams will be interested at deadline an he can be flipped for another prospect. I am getting excited about upcoming season. Dick Williams should be a improvement over Jock itch. I think they are starting to embrace contact hitters and on base guys it seems. Heard a guy say the other day that the only thing that matters for a hitter is to simply not make outs keep the line moving. It dont matter if it is a HR single or a walk key is to just dont make outs. I wonder how much longer Votto will be productive? 3-5 years or longer? At least playing 1b should help his legs. After reading up the last couple years on analytics I believe Joey Votto is the best Reds player ever. I believe he has passed Morgan Bench Rose etc. all. Rod and Linz I may be headed down your way this Sun to a card show in sharonville. Regarding Votto I do expect him to last production wise. Not only because of his work ethic in the cage but in the training room. Diet and lifestyle affect a player as much as anything and JV is a health nut. Plus he is not power dependent. That is key. Guys like that age badly because as their skills diminish they swing harder til they are basically unproductive and done. Votto is a pure hitter and that doesn't fade as rapidly. You are the 2nd person this offseason I have heard say Votto is one of, if not the best Reds player ever. Watching everyday can warp people's perspective about their home town players. They all fail more than they succeed. It causes one to not realize the significance of what they really are. Votto is something.
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Post by eric on Jan 27, 2017 19:00:44 GMT -5
If they bring back Arroyo. I'm not sure if I will watch many games. That's stupid.
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Post by Rodneck on Jan 27, 2017 21:57:52 GMT -5
If they bring back Arroyo. I'm not sure if I will watch many games. That's stupid. I forgot about your and Yo-Yo's love story!
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Post by socalredsfan on Jan 30, 2017 13:32:22 GMT -5
I personally think there is a good chance that we see Lorenzen in the rotation. I have mixed feelings about this too. I love the idea of no completely set closer, and using a few of the guys for two innings or more in the bullpen. Price did this last year, and we saw it in the post season. And yes Rod, I'd certainly like to see this team take a look at Wood and Holland, but only if they are steals and with the mindset of moving them at the deadline.
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Post by socalredsfan on Jan 30, 2017 13:35:44 GMT -5
So we start the year with these 4-Desclafani, Bailey, Finnegan, and Feldman. With Reed, Garrett, Stephenson, and Adelman as depth. I like having 4 penciled in. And don't laugh at it. I doubt we will ever see the historical 2012-13 rotation ever again. Remember in 2010 we only had 3 starters with an ERA under 4.00(Arroyo, Cueto, and Wood) and none of them were under 3.50. 2012 there were 4 but only Cueto had an ERA under 3.48 but that was his ace year of a 2.78 ERA. In 13 we actually had 6 starters under 4.00. We just need competent out of the rotation to be decent. But I will be holding my breath the first few weeks of April! LOL! I think Garrett is a shoe-in after the few weeks needed to eliminate the Super Two status. I think this kid will be an absolute ACE. So in my mind, by May the 4 locks are DeSclafani, Bailey, Finnegan, and Garrett. I'm not too big on Adelman. I think Stephenson beats him out. More of a hunch than anything else though.
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