Post by Rodneck on Apr 12, 2017 7:13:53 GMT -5
One thing 6-2 does other than make you like the fact that the last time we won the first 3 series of the season was 1990 is that you are borderline infatuated with it. But long looks force you to acknowledge the good and the bad. Don't worry this is not an exercise in pessimism. The most important attribute we have going right now is a collective team attitude. And that isn't subject to the fluctuations of performance and statistics. But just looking at places where there is IMO unsustainability it is balanced out by other strengths or places where we are not up to par with our own recent standards.
Runs
Right now we are 7th in runs with 39 and on pace for 790. We scored 716 last season but I think the post allstar break pace is more realistic of 755 runs. So while we are above our ceiling here it is not over the top.
HR
This is 1 reason why I am glad they kept Duvall. We don't have an infinite amount of pop. And in the 2nd half of last season we hit only 66 HR's which ranked 27th in baseball and were 13th in SLG with a .421. Not exactly what you would expect to see from a team whose home is GABP. On the whole we hit 164 HR's last year. Right now we are 2nd in baseball with 13 HR's and pacing 263! Which is clearly unsustainable to say the least! But I do think with a little more stability and maturity from some of our players we will be about midpack at least in HR.
Stolen Bases
Last season we came in 2nd with 139 stolen bases. Right now we are 1st with 10 and pacing 203. Being we will have a full season of Peraza here I expect us to be in the middle of these numbers with 171 but we could very well lead all of baseball in this category.
RISP
So while our power is suspect and far above realistic expectations this area is one where we can improve. Last season we hit .274 with RISP(5th) and were very consistent throughout most of the season with this. Right now we are hitting .206 with RISP. So what imbalance we have in power will surely be compensated right here.
AVG
Last season we hit .256(16th). In the 2nd half we hit .277(2nd) and right now we are hitting .263(6th). I believe we are a top 10 hitting team. Yes I said it and we proved it in the 2nd half. The .263 is right in our wheelhouse rank and par. This stat translates directly to the RISP stat. We should excel overall in both.
Offensive Big Picture
The OBP was 24th last year and 13th now. We are somewhere in the middle. But to be able to hit for average and maintain a nice balance of speed and power our run production should be there all season.
Pitching
Even with our starters pitching 20 less innings than the most productive rotation in baseball they are still maintaining a 3.68 ERA(16th). But the cost to the bullpen which at 1.31 is the best in baseball is unsustainable. As is a 2.54 ERA(2nd) considering we had a 4.91 ERA(28th) last year. But we do have a legitimately better bullpen. And I expect there to be starters whether veterans or rookies in the bullpen all season. This should be a strength all season. Unless it is taxed beyond repair by a rotation that doesn't progress. We are all in a state of both bliss and anxiety with every start every night. A fast start in the entirety of April and an improving rotation along the way could mean things I dare not fathom right now. But it is within our reach. As a good Catholic boy I am hitting the rosary a little today! Within the near future I see Arroyo going to the pen. Reed going into the rotation. And both Stephenson and Davis sent down while calling up Romano and Astin. Stephenson will get some innings tonight but I still don't see the mental progress for a guy who spent all of last season in AAA or MLB and had dismal stats at both. Rookie Davis while a work in progress and talented needs more seasoning IMO. Romano's control as with Astin too is the reason both will be back up IMO. We need pitchers who don't walk people, run up pitch counts, and taxes arms. Arroyo absorbing innings and protecting arms from the bullpen while not obstructing the youth movement is the right thing to do, should be a role he can excel in, and I think works swimmingly.
Runs
Right now we are 7th in runs with 39 and on pace for 790. We scored 716 last season but I think the post allstar break pace is more realistic of 755 runs. So while we are above our ceiling here it is not over the top.
HR
This is 1 reason why I am glad they kept Duvall. We don't have an infinite amount of pop. And in the 2nd half of last season we hit only 66 HR's which ranked 27th in baseball and were 13th in SLG with a .421. Not exactly what you would expect to see from a team whose home is GABP. On the whole we hit 164 HR's last year. Right now we are 2nd in baseball with 13 HR's and pacing 263! Which is clearly unsustainable to say the least! But I do think with a little more stability and maturity from some of our players we will be about midpack at least in HR.
Stolen Bases
Last season we came in 2nd with 139 stolen bases. Right now we are 1st with 10 and pacing 203. Being we will have a full season of Peraza here I expect us to be in the middle of these numbers with 171 but we could very well lead all of baseball in this category.
RISP
So while our power is suspect and far above realistic expectations this area is one where we can improve. Last season we hit .274 with RISP(5th) and were very consistent throughout most of the season with this. Right now we are hitting .206 with RISP. So what imbalance we have in power will surely be compensated right here.
AVG
Last season we hit .256(16th). In the 2nd half we hit .277(2nd) and right now we are hitting .263(6th). I believe we are a top 10 hitting team. Yes I said it and we proved it in the 2nd half. The .263 is right in our wheelhouse rank and par. This stat translates directly to the RISP stat. We should excel overall in both.
Offensive Big Picture
The OBP was 24th last year and 13th now. We are somewhere in the middle. But to be able to hit for average and maintain a nice balance of speed and power our run production should be there all season.
Pitching
Even with our starters pitching 20 less innings than the most productive rotation in baseball they are still maintaining a 3.68 ERA(16th). But the cost to the bullpen which at 1.31 is the best in baseball is unsustainable. As is a 2.54 ERA(2nd) considering we had a 4.91 ERA(28th) last year. But we do have a legitimately better bullpen. And I expect there to be starters whether veterans or rookies in the bullpen all season. This should be a strength all season. Unless it is taxed beyond repair by a rotation that doesn't progress. We are all in a state of both bliss and anxiety with every start every night. A fast start in the entirety of April and an improving rotation along the way could mean things I dare not fathom right now. But it is within our reach. As a good Catholic boy I am hitting the rosary a little today! Within the near future I see Arroyo going to the pen. Reed going into the rotation. And both Stephenson and Davis sent down while calling up Romano and Astin. Stephenson will get some innings tonight but I still don't see the mental progress for a guy who spent all of last season in AAA or MLB and had dismal stats at both. Rookie Davis while a work in progress and talented needs more seasoning IMO. Romano's control as with Astin too is the reason both will be back up IMO. We need pitchers who don't walk people, run up pitch counts, and taxes arms. Arroyo absorbing innings and protecting arms from the bullpen while not obstructing the youth movement is the right thing to do, should be a role he can excel in, and I think works swimmingly.
