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Post by redsfan4life on Feb 17, 2017 13:22:55 GMT -5
I am talking record wise.
I really have no clue. I could see us competing for a wild card spot or buired in last place again. I think it could go either way.
Offence I see being middle of the pack. Bullpen I think will be much improved maybe even a top 10 type of pen. If it don't get burned out from over use.
Biggest key to whole season IMO is 2 of 3 from group of Stephenson,Reed and Garrett have to take a step forward for this team to have any shot of competing.
Also Feldman has to eat inns. and give a 4.50 ish e.r.a. And of course the biggest key of all has to be health.
Bench I really have no clue who is gonna be on it so can't say if it will be better,worse or same as past few seasons.
My prediction for breakout players are Suarez and Schebler. I really like Schebler hope he get a shot to start full time no benching him against LHP.
If those two breakout we could have a top 10 type Offence.
I will predict 81-81 and we are in wildcard contention till mid Sept.
What do you guys think?
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Post by Rodneck on Feb 17, 2017 14:37:12 GMT -5
83-79
IMO we will know by the end of April what our record will be. I think the offense and bullpen will be fine. We need to get even a mediocre rotation. If that is better than mediocre I really and truly believe the sky is the limit. We saw some team chemistry arise out of nowhere last year. With an influx of talent and youth I think it could be contagious. A fast start could propel this team. That's as bold as I can get!
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Post by Rodneck on Feb 17, 2017 14:39:45 GMT -5
I think a very good bench could be Cozart(assuming Herrera wins out), Mesoroco, Irribaren, Jennings, and Renda. The last 2 had excellent seasons as hitters last year. I don't care if it was in AAA.
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Post by socalredsfan on Feb 17, 2017 16:15:59 GMT -5
It's so hard to predict. There are more "if's" than I can ever recall. The rotation is the obvious question mark, followed by the offense. The bullpen should be among the top 10. I really like the look of it. The keys to offense are whether or not guys have breakout seasons. I've never been sold on Peraza, both defensively or offensively, but his 2nd half was amazing. Can he be a .324 hitter again? Like Redsfan, I believe Suarez is the likely breakout offensive player. I would be shocked if he doesn't improve immensely from his last year's numbers. Rod, Cozart isn't going to lose out to anyone. He will start, and he has to start. If the Reds want to trade him, then they need to play him, and quite frankly, he should play. It's one thing for people to rightly suggest that BP's salary was way too much, his offense was declining, and his defense was declining, but none of those things can be said about Cozart. I'm all for seeing Cozart dealt, but not given away. I also believe that this team's success moving forward, HAS to include Winker. His wrist is fully heeled, so I don't think power will be an issue, and putting his .400 OBP in this lineup would be unbelievable. Also, Mesoraco can change the look of this team. He's a stretch at this point, and as Brad mentioned before, he's almost a sunk cost, but if he bounces back, that's a potential All Star in your lineup.
Realistically, I'm with Redsfan. 81 - 81. If these guys play to their higher potentials, you could see a team sneaking into the Wild Card mix with 87 wins. I do know this. I think I'd have to go back to 2012 to compare my excitement for an impending Reds season. I hope somehow they fight and remain relevant all season long.
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Post by brad on Feb 17, 2017 21:05:25 GMT -5
I don't have a ton of faith in the rotation especially with Homer being out so long. If Feldman, who hasn't started in a while, is your #3, that leaves a lot of question marks. I believe the bullpen will be sufficiently good...unless they get abused by an ineffective rotation. I see the offense continuing to blossom, with Votto being Votto, Hamilton maintaining his 2nd half groove, a hopefully healthy Mesoraco, a batting average bounceback from Suarez, an improving Schebler & Peraza. I do anticipate we'll see more of the 2nd half Duvall than the All-Star Duvall to open the door for Winker.
With that being said, I'll sadly go with 75-87, with Amir Garrett being the breakout player
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Post by redsfan4life on Feb 18, 2017 11:16:30 GMT -5
Well like it or not. I don't but Ryan Raburn is all but guarented a bench spot now. He is a article xx-b free agent. Which means if he don't make the 25 man roster he gets a retention bonus of a 100K.
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Post by redsfan4life on Feb 18, 2017 11:26:20 GMT -5
Backup C ,Rayburn, Irribaren,Jennings that's four. We may only go 4 guys and a extra bull pen arm at times. Hopefully Irribaren's season wasn't a fluke last year. I think Herrera starts season in AAA till Cozart is dealt. We gotta hope he stays healthy and productive so he can be moved at deadline.
I am with you Brad. I expect to see 2nd half Duvall rather than first have. That will eventually open up a spot for Winker. I still think Duvall can be a productive bench piece. Can backup 1b 3b and the corner OF spots. Plenty of power as a PH off the bench.
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Post by redsfan4life on Feb 18, 2017 11:29:04 GMT -5
It's so hard to predict. There are more "if's" than I can ever recall. The rotation is the obvious question mark, followed by the offense. The bullpen should be among the top 10. I really like the look of it. The keys to offense are whether or not guys have breakout seasons. I've never been sold on Peraza, both defensively or offensively, but his 2nd half was amazing. Can he be a .324 hitter again? Like Redsfan, I believe Suarez is the likely breakout offensive player. I would be shocked if he doesn't improve immensely from his last year's numbers. Rod, Cozart isn't going to lose out to anyone. He will start, and he has to start. If the Reds want to trade him, then they need to play him, and quite frankly, he should play. It's one thing for people to rightly suggest that BP's salary was way too much, his offense was declining, and his defense was declining, but none of those things can be said about Cozart. I'm all for seeing Cozart dealt, but not given away. I also believe that this team's success moving forward, HAS to include Winker. His wrist is fully heeled, so I don't think power will be an issue, and putting his .400 OBP in this lineup would be unbelievable. Also, Mesoraco can change the look of this team. He's a stretch at this point, and as Brad mentioned before, he's almost a sunk cost, but if he bounces back, that's a potential All Star in your lineup. Realistically, I'm with Redsfan. 81 - 81. If these guys play to their higher potentials, you could see a team sneaking into the Wild Card mix with 87 wins. I do know this. I think I'd have to go back to 2012 to compare my excitement for an impending Reds season. I hope somehow they fight and remain relevant all season long. I am with you Chris, I am very excited about the season. I plan on being active on the board as much as I possibly can. I have missed talking baseball with all you guys on here. |
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Post by FoulBalz on Feb 18, 2017 16:52:19 GMT -5
Odds for number of wins for Reds 2017 is 73.5
I will take the under.
71-91
Why ? Starting pitching , outfield is AAAA level
No bench. Manager
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Post by Rodneck on Feb 19, 2017 8:42:24 GMT -5
It's so hard to predict. There are more "if's" than I can ever recall. The rotation is the obvious question mark, followed by the offense. The bullpen should be among the top 10. I really like the look of it. The keys to offense are whether or not guys have breakout seasons. I've never been sold on Peraza, both defensively or offensively, but his 2nd half was amazing. Can he be a .324 hitter again? Like Redsfan, I believe Suarez is the likely breakout offensive player. I would be shocked if he doesn't improve immensely from his last year's numbers. Rod, Cozart isn't going to lose out to anyone. He will start, and he has to start. If the Reds want to trade him, then they need to play him, and quite frankly, he should play. It's one thing for people to rightly suggest that BP's salary was way too much, his offense was declining, and his defense was declining, but none of those things can be said about Cozart. I'm all for seeing Cozart dealt, but not given away. I also believe that this team's success moving forward, HAS to include Winker. His wrist is fully heeled, so I don't think power will be an issue, and putting his .400 OBP in this lineup would be unbelievable. Also, Mesoraco can change the look of this team. He's a stretch at this point, and as Brad mentioned before, he's almost a sunk cost, but if he bounces back, that's a potential All Star in your lineup. Realistically, I'm with Redsfan. 81 - 81. If these guys play to their higher potentials, you could see a team sneaking into the Wild Card mix with 87 wins. I do know this. I think I'd have to go back to 2012 to compare my excitement for an impending Reds season. I hope somehow they fight and remain relevant all season long. This highlighted portion I absolutely agree with. Saw some turning of the corner late last season and that was still with some very dismal pitching. Once the enthusiasm starts to bubble a little bit the season can't get here fast enough! Fingers crossed... |
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Post by Rodneck on Feb 19, 2017 8:52:39 GMT -5
I really think the second half, driven by offense and Iglesias/Lorenzen stabilizing the bullpen is closer to where we are right now. The 340 runs we scored in 73 games translates into 754 on a season. That is borderline top 10. Nearly all year we possessed clutch ability, which while spurious says more about character than anything IMO. Power evaporated at times late in the year. But think about how deadly the top of the lineup could be if we get 2nd half Hamilton-Peraza-Votto ie (.366-.380-.490 OBP). Not to mention about 100 stolen bases. The whole team took on a more disciplined approach to hitting late last year. This is the peripheral influence of Joey Votto. If good lord please give us some starting pitching! If we can get some fire and performance out of that rotation this could get fun. It could get serious fast.
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Post by forty on Feb 19, 2017 15:16:47 GMT -5
I really have no idea but I was actually giving this some thought earlier today before I saw this thread and was thinking 5 games either side of 500. It will be tough to get into a WC spot even if we do over achieve a bit so I would hope that they give guys like Winker and Stephenson a bit of rope and play more for 2018. Will be interesting to see how it goes down and can't wait to get started.
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Post by socalredsfan on Feb 21, 2017 18:01:02 GMT -5
Duvall is an interesting subject. I was begging the Reds to try and deal him last season at the trade deadline, with the mindset of selling high, and believing Winker could take over the job. The numbers suggest that would have been a great move. Having said that, and I've been suspect of Duvall the whole time, I can't help but wonder if he just wore down during the 2nd half, having not played that many games in the past. More games, and at a much higher stress level can beat you up. Say what you want, but Duvall looked like a different player last year in the 1st half. I honestly have no idea what to expect from him. He could be a complete bust, or he could be much better than last year, avg/obp-wise. I would not be shocked at this point, either way. Doing what he did and shocking everyone with his defense in LF, who knows what improvements he can make offensively to his game.
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Post by Rodneck on Feb 25, 2017 22:38:15 GMT -5
Duvall is an interesting subject. I was begging the Reds to try and deal him last season at the trade deadline, with the mindset of selling high, and believing Winker could take over the job. The numbers suggest that would have been a great move. Having said that, and I've been suspect of Duvall the whole time, I can't help but wonder if he just wore down during the 2nd half, having not played that many games in the past. More games, and at a much higher stress level can beat you up. Say what you want, but Duvall looked like a different player last year in the 1st half. I honestly have no idea what to expect from him. He could be a complete bust, or he could be much better than last year, avg/obp-wise. I would not be shocked at this point, either way. Doing what he did and shocking everyone with his defense in LF, who knows what improvements he can make offensively to his game. It looks like we have a SoCal created moron sandwhich! 2 ideas=totally dumb that are fun to play with. Thank you!. Duvall was a throw in from get go. The HR power in the minors had his talents at a set level and we capitalized. This wheel deal we can leverage dogshit for diamonds mentality consistently is laughable to me! And Winker being up here last year probably batting .220. Give me a break. I am optimistic this spring. Not taking those leaps though!  |
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Post by socalredsfan on Feb 28, 2017 0:20:37 GMT -5
Duvall is an interesting subject. I was begging the Reds to try and deal him last season at the trade deadline, with the mindset of selling high, and believing Winker could take over the job. The numbers suggest that would have been a great move. Having said that, and I've been suspect of Duvall the whole time, I can't help but wonder if he just wore down during the 2nd half, having not played that many games in the past. More games, and at a much higher stress level can beat you up. Say what you want, but Duvall looked like a different player last year in the 1st half. I honestly have no idea what to expect from him. He could be a complete bust, or he could be much better than last year, avg/obp-wise. I would not be shocked at this point, either way. Doing what he did and shocking everyone with his defense in LF, who knows what improvements he can make offensively to his game. It looks like we have a SoCal created moron sandwhich! 2 ideas=totally dumb that are fun to play with. Thank you!. Duvall was a throw in from get go. The HR power in the minors had his talents at a set level and we capitalized. This wheel deal we can leverage dogshit for diamonds mentality consistently is laughable to me! And Winker being up here last year probably batting .220. Give me a break. I am optimistic this spring. Not taking those leaps though! I'm not sure I get your point Rod. You appear to be bashing my two points regarding Duvall and Winker, but don't support the criticism with much. Yes, we got Duvall as a throw-in, but who cares? As it turns out, he was the best part of that deal. Duvall was an All Star in the 1st half, and quite possibly based on his contract and MLB time, he might have netted us some serious prospects. Not only that, he was very sub par in the 2nd half, supporting the notion that dealing him at the trade deadline may have been selling him at his peak. Only this year will tell, and as I mentioned, I think he could go either way. As for Winker, the kid finally had an excellent last three months to his minor league season, along with a great short stint in azl fall league, so I'm not sure why you launch the .220 number out there. |
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